{"id":230,"date":"2007-03-08T08:12:05","date_gmt":"2007-03-08T08:12:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/?p=230"},"modified":"2017-02-08T08:12:31","modified_gmt":"2017-02-08T08:12:31","slug":"three-round-delphi-exercise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/three-round-delphi-exercise\/","title":{"rendered":"Three-Round Delphi Exercise"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three-Round Delphi Exercise(Example)<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Rensvold \/ Oct 2014<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    FIRST ROUND<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Coordinator\u2019s Letter<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (Send a separate letter to each participant)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Hi Tom\/Dick\/Harry,<\/p>\n

    I need a favor.<\/p>\n

    I\u2019m enrolled in a college course, and I need to do a Delphi decision exercise with at least three other participants.\u00a0 I\u2019d like you to be one of them.\u00a0 It\u2019ll be fun!<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Here\u2019s how it works.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    I\u2019m going to ask you to estimate the likelihood of something specific happening.\u00a0 A likelihood is a number ranging anywhere between 0% and 100%, where<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    0%\u00a0 =\u00a0 there\u2019s no way it could ever<\/em> happen (like the Sun rising in the West).<\/p>\n

    50% = there\u2019s a fifty-fifty chance of it happening(like a coin coming up heads)<\/p>\n

    100% = it\u2019s absolutely certain to happen (like the Sun rising in the East).<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The \u201csomething specific\u201d is something you know about, care about, and have thought about, but don\u2019t necessarily have any expert knowledge about.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Along with your likelihood estimate, please list all the things that may push that event towards happening, or tend to keep it from happening.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    I\u2019ll be collecting the same information from two other people, sharing it with you, then asking you if you\u2019d like to revise your estimate.\u00a0 This will happen twice.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Here\u2019s what I\u2019d like you to estimate.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Question:\u00a0 What is the likelihood of Hillary Clinton being elected President in 2016?<\/strong><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Please answer with a number between 1% and 100%<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Then, please list all the reasons you can think of why, or why not, that may happen.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    That\u2019s all!\u00a0 Could you please get that information to me in the next day or two?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Thanks a lot,<\/p>\n

    R2<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    First Round Responses<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (copied verbatim from participant responses)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    From Tom:\u00a0 I think she has an 80% chance.\u00a0 There are a lot of middle-aged women who admire her, who sympathize with her for having had to put up with Bill, and think it\u2019s time for a woman to be President.\u00a0 The main thing holding her back would be her family.\u00a0 She just became a grandmother, and after all the stuff she\u2019s gone though in her public life, she may be ready to shuck it all and just be Granny.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    From Dick: Only 50%.\u00a0 And she\u2019s got the best chance of any Democrat.\u00a0 The thing holding her back will be the enthusiasm of the Democratic base.\u00a0 I mean, a lot of liberals think she\u2019s just another big-business warmonger;\u00a0 she voted for the Iraq War, after all.\u00a0 So Democrats may or may not come out for her. The Republicans, on the other hand, will absolutely hate the idea of having Bill back in the White House.\u00a0 They\u2019ll vote for sure, and they\u2019ll vote against Hillary.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    From Harry:\u00a0 Only 40%.\u00a0 It all comes down to money.\u00a0 The Democrats don\u2019t have the billionaire supporters the Republicans do \u2013 just look at the Koch brothers!\u00a0 Given enough money, they\u2019ll be able to convince the voters that Hillary is a socialistic, atheistic, gun-hating, gay-loving anti-family abortionist peacenik, and a bad cook to boot.\u00a0 Money talks and BS walks!<\/p>\n

    SECOND ROUND<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Coordinator\u2019s Letters<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    —–<\/p>\n

    Hi Tom,<\/p>\n

    Here are the results of the first round.\u00a0 You\u2019re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they\u2019re not seeing your name, either.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Question:<\/p>\n

    What\u2019s the likelihood\u00a0 of Hillary being elected in 2016?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Your response:\u00a0 80%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    Admired by older women<\/p>\n

    Women think it\u2019s time for a woman President<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    May not want to \u2013 a new grandmother!<\/p>\n

    X\u2019s response:\u00a0 50%
    \nReasons why:<\/p>\n

    Best chance of any Democrat<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic<\/p>\n

    Republicans will be enthusiastically against<\/p>\n

    Y\u2019s response:\u00a0 40%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    None given.<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats<\/p>\n

    Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate.\u00a0 Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.<\/p>\n

    Thanks a lot!<\/p>\n

    R2<\/p>\n

    —–<\/p>\n

    Hi Dick,<\/p>\n

    Here are the results of the first round.\u00a0 You\u2019re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they\u2019re not seeing your name, either.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Question:<\/p>\n

    What\u2019s the likelihood\u00a0 of Hillary being elected in 2016?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Your response:\u00a0 50%
    \nReasons why:<\/p>\n

    Best chance of any Democrat<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic<\/p>\n

    Republicans will be enthusiastically against<\/p>\n

    X\u2019s response:\u00a0 80%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    Admired by older women<\/p>\n

    Women think it\u2019s time for a woman President<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    May not want to \u2013 a new grandmother!<\/p>\n

    Y\u2019s response:\u00a0 40%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    None given.<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats<\/p>\n

    Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate.\u00a0 Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.<\/p>\n

    Thanks a lot!<\/p>\n

    R2<\/p>\n

    —–<\/p>\n

    Hi Harry,<\/p>\n

    Here are the results of the first round.\u00a0 You\u2019re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they\u2019re not seeing your name, either.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Question:<\/p>\n

    What\u2019s the likelihood\u00a0 of Hillary being elected in 2016?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Your response:\u00a0 40%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    None given.<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats<\/p>\n

    Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary<\/p>\n

    X\u2019s response:\u00a0 80%<\/p>\n

    Reasons why:<\/p>\n

    Admired by older women<\/p>\n

    Women think it\u2019s time for a woman President<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    May not want to \u2013 a new grandmother!<\/p>\n

    Y\u2019s response:\u00a0 50%
    \nReasons why:<\/p>\n

    Best chance of any Democrat<\/p>\n

    Reasons why not:<\/p>\n

    Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic<\/p>\n

    Republicans will be enthusiastically against<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate.\u00a0 Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.<\/p>\n

    Thanks a lot!<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Second Round Responses:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (As in First Round:\u00a0 Copied verbatim from participant\u2019s responses)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    From Tom:<\/p>\n

    From Dick:<\/p>\n

    From Harry:<\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em>THIRD ROUND<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Coordinator\u2019s Letters<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (Similar to the above, but summarizing the second round responses and asking for another revision.)<\/p>\n

    Third Round Responses:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (As in the first two Rounds:\u00a0 Copied verbatim from participant\u2019s responses)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    From Tom:<\/p>\n

    From Dick:<\/p>\n

    From Harry:<\/p>\n

    Third Round Summary:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    (Letter sent to each of the participants)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Three-Round Delphi Exercise(Example) Rensvold \/ Oct 2014 FIRST ROUND Coordinator\u2019s Letter (Send a separate letter to each participant) Hi Tom\/Dick\/Harry, I need a favor. I\u2019m enrolled in a college course, and I need to do a Delphi decision exercise with at least three other participants.\u00a0 I\u2019d like you to be one of them.\u00a0 It\u2019ll be…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=230"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":231,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230\/revisions\/231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prowriterz.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}