Three-Round Delphi Exercise(Example)
- Rensvold / Oct 2014
FIRST ROUND
Coordinator’s Letter
(Send a separate letter to each participant)
Hi Tom/Dick/Harry,
I need a favor.
I’m enrolled in a college course, and I need to do a Delphi decision exercise with at least three other participants. I’d like you to be one of them. It’ll be fun!
Here’s how it works.
I’m going to ask you to estimate the likelihood of something specific happening. A likelihood is a number ranging anywhere between 0% and 100%, where
0% = there’s no way it could ever happen (like the Sun rising in the West).
50% = there’s a fifty-fifty chance of it happening(like a coin coming up heads)
100% = it’s absolutely certain to happen (like the Sun rising in the East).
The “something specific” is something you know about, care about, and have thought about, but don’t necessarily have any expert knowledge about.
Along with your likelihood estimate, please list all the things that may push that event towards happening, or tend to keep it from happening.
I’ll be collecting the same information from two other people, sharing it with you, then asking you if you’d like to revise your estimate. This will happen twice.
Here’s what I’d like you to estimate.
Question: What is the likelihood of Hillary Clinton being elected President in 2016?
Please answer with a number between 1% and 100%
Then, please list all the reasons you can think of why, or why not, that may happen.
That’s all! Could you please get that information to me in the next day or two?
Thanks a lot,
R2
First Round Responses
(copied verbatim from participant responses)
From Tom: I think she has an 80% chance. There are a lot of middle-aged women who admire her, who sympathize with her for having had to put up with Bill, and think it’s time for a woman to be President. The main thing holding her back would be her family. She just became a grandmother, and after all the stuff she’s gone though in her public life, she may be ready to shuck it all and just be Granny.
From Dick: Only 50%. And she’s got the best chance of any Democrat. The thing holding her back will be the enthusiasm of the Democratic base. I mean, a lot of liberals think she’s just another big-business warmonger; she voted for the Iraq War, after all. So Democrats may or may not come out for her. The Republicans, on the other hand, will absolutely hate the idea of having Bill back in the White House. They’ll vote for sure, and they’ll vote against Hillary.
From Harry: Only 40%. It all comes down to money. The Democrats don’t have the billionaire supporters the Republicans do – just look at the Koch brothers! Given enough money, they’ll be able to convince the voters that Hillary is a socialistic, atheistic, gun-hating, gay-loving anti-family abortionist peacenik, and a bad cook to boot. Money talks and BS walks!
SECOND ROUND
Coordinator’s Letters
—–
Hi Tom,
Here are the results of the first round. You’re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they’re not seeing your name, either.
Question:
What’s the likelihood of Hillary being elected in 2016?
Your response: 80%
Reasons why:
Admired by older women
Women think it’s time for a woman President
Reasons why not:
May not want to – a new grandmother!
X’s response: 50%
Reasons why:
Best chance of any Democrat
Reasons why not:
Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic
Republicans will be enthusiastically against
Y’s response: 40%
Reasons why:
None given.
Reasons why not:
Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats
Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary
On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate. Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.
Thanks a lot!
R2
—–
Hi Dick,
Here are the results of the first round. You’re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they’re not seeing your name, either.
Question:
What’s the likelihood of Hillary being elected in 2016?
Your response: 50%
Reasons why:
Best chance of any Democrat
Reasons why not:
Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic
Republicans will be enthusiastically against
X’s response: 80%
Reasons why:
Admired by older women
Women think it’s time for a woman President
Reasons why not:
May not want to – a new grandmother!
Y’s response: 40%
Reasons why:
None given.
Reasons why not:
Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats
Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary
On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate. Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.
Thanks a lot!
R2
—–
Hi Harry,
Here are the results of the first round. You’re not seeing the names of the other two participants, and they’re not seeing your name, either.
Question:
What’s the likelihood of Hillary being elected in 2016?
Your response: 40%
Reasons why:
None given.
Reasons why not:
Republican big-money donors will outspend the Democrats
Intensive advertising will sway the electorate against Hillary
X’s response: 80%
Reasons why:
Admired by older women
Women think it’s time for a woman President
Reasons why not:
May not want to – a new grandmother!
Y’s response: 50%
Reasons why:
Best chance of any Democrat
Reasons why not:
Democratic liberal base may not be enthusiastic
Republicans will be enthusiastically against
On this basis of these responses, please revise your own estimate. Send it to me, along with your revised list of reasons why and reasons why not.
Thanks a lot!
Second Round Responses:
(As in First Round: Copied verbatim from participant’s responses)
From Tom:
From Dick:
From Harry:
THIRD ROUND
Coordinator’s Letters
(Similar to the above, but summarizing the second round responses and asking for another revision.)
Third Round Responses:
(As in the first two Rounds: Copied verbatim from participant’s responses)
From Tom:
From Dick:
From Harry:
Third Round Summary:
(Letter sent to each of the participants)
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